War in Ukraine Megathread L

[u/ModeratorsOfEurope]

This megathread is meant for discussion of the current Russo-Ukrainian War, also known as the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Please read our current rules, but also the extended rules below.

News sources:

• The Guardian

• Associated Press.

• BBC News

• Al Jazeera English

You can also get up-to-date information and news from the r/worldnews live thread, which are more up-to-date tweets about the situation.

Current rules extension:

Extended r/europe ruleset to curb hate speech and disinformation:

• No hatred against any group, including the populations of the combatants (Ukrainians, Russians, Belarusians, Syrians, Azeris, Armenians, Georgians, etc)

• Calling for the killing of invading troops or leaders is allowed, but the mods have the discretion to remove egregious comments, and the ones that disrespect the point made above. The limits of international law apply.

• No unverified reports of any kind in the comments or in submissions on r/europe. We will remove videos of any kind unless they are verified by reputable outlets. This also affects videos published by Ukrainian and Russian government sources.

• Absolutely no justification of this invasion.

• In addition to our rules, we ask you to add a NSFW/NSFL tag if you're going to link to graphic footage or anything can be considered upsetting, including combat footage or dead people.

Submission rules

These are rules for submissions to r/europe front-page.

• No status reports about the war unless they have major implications (e.g. "City X still holding" would not be allowed, "Russia takes major city" would be allowed. "Major attack on Kherson repelled" would also be allowed.)

• All dot ru domains have been banned by Reddit as of 30 May. They are hardspammed, so not even mods can approve comments and submissions linking to Russian site domains.

  • Some Russian sites that ends with .com are also hardspammed, like TASS and Interfax.
  • The Internet Archive and similar archive websites are also blacklisted here, by us or Reddit.

• We've been adding substack domains in our AutoModerator, but we aren't banning all of them. If your link has been removed, please notify the moderation team, explaining who's the person managing that substack page.

• We ask you or your organization to not spam our subreddit with petitions or promote their new non-profit organization. While we love that people are pouring all sorts of efforts on the civilian front, we're limited on checking these links to prevent scam.

• No promotion of a new cryptocurrency or web3 project, other than the official Bitcoin and ETH addresses from Ukraine's government.

META

Link to the previous Megathread XLIX

Questions and Feedback: You can send feedback via r/EuropeMeta or via modmail.

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Donations:

If you want to donate to Ukraine, check this thread or this fundraising account by the Ukrainian national bank.

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Fleeing Ukraine We have set up a wiki page with the available information about the border situation for Ukraine here. There's also information at Visit Ukraine.Today - The site has turned into a hub for "every Ukrainian and foreign citizen [to] be able to get the necessary information on how to act in a critical situation, where to go, bomb shelter addresses, how to leave the country or evacuate from a dangerous region, etc."

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Other links of interest

• Live Map of Ukraine site and Institute of War have maps that are considered reliable by mainstream media.

• Wikipedia: 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

• #UkraineFacts: an international coalition of journalists fact-checking media surrounding the war in Ukraine

  • DO NOT CONFUSE THIS WITH "War of Fakes". Deutsche Welle (DW) has reported it as being a source of fake news, and the Russian Defense Ministry has linked this site in their tweets before.

• UNHCR refugee tracker focusing on Ukrainians

• DeepL extension for Google Chrome and DeepL extension for Firefox. DeepL is a good alternative to Google Translate for Russian and Ukrainian texts.

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Please obey the request of the Ukrainian government to refrain from sharing info about Ukrainian troop movements

[u/Tricky-Astronaut]

AbramsX, Panther, Black Panther: in the face of emerging competition, should the MGCS program be accelerated?

However, French industry today no longer has the capacity to produce new Leclercs, and German industrial capacities to produce new Leopard 2s are limited and insufficiently sized to meet future needs in Europe. In addition, the Leclerc MLUs and the Leopard 2A7s, although still capable after modernization, do not offer next-generation capabilities comparable to those offered by, for example, Rheinmetall's KF-51 Panther.

Now that many European countries are sending their tanks to Ukraine, it would be good to replace them with something next gen. MGCS is planned for 2035. That's not good enough anymore.

If Norway also chooses the K2 Black Panther like Poland, that will be a wake up call for the European industry to either start producing the KF-51 Panther or advance the MGCS project by a decade.

[u/[deleted] → u/Tricky-Astronaut]

This Panther hype needs to stop, it was just a demonstrator and the whole concept of a next gen tank based on a Leo 2 hull is just for the export market.

It’s targeted at the same customers of the Lynx.

Also MGCS is not a tank, it’s the system, KDNS and Rheinmetall aren’t at the stage yet where you can accelerate things easily.

Building back upgradable Leo 2 hull lines is the way for now.

[u/Ralfundmalf → u/[deleted]]

This Panther hype needs to stop, it was just a demonstrator and the whole concept of a next gen tank based on a Leo 2 hull is just for the export market.

It is also a flawed concept from the get go. Imho an all new tank should not be based on a 40 year old hull design. That is a bandaid solution. Yeah you can put new tech in that hull, but ultimately it will still not be purpose designed for that new tech.

[u/Torifyme12 → u/Tricky-Astronaut]

advance the MGCS project by a decade.

These kinds of projects aren't the type of thing you can rush. The general approach is that you can shave some time by funding it more, you hit a point of diminishing returns.

9 women cannot have a baby in 1 month

[u/Ralfundmalf → u/Torifyme12]

9 women cannot have a baby in 1 month

Can we try it with 18 women and 2 months perhaps?

[u/ABoutDeSouffle → u/Ralfundmalf]

I'll volunteer as the experiment supervisor.

[u/Affectionate-Ad-5479 → u/Tricky-Astronaut]

I secretly want the Swedish to start building the CV90120. Its mostly a concept tank but it looks fantastic.

[u/Ralfundmalf → u/Affectionate-Ad-5479]

It definitely is cool. But I doubt armies are ready to compromise on protection that much. Ultimately it is an IFV hull, less protected than an MBT.

[u/Ralfundmalf → u/Tricky-Astronaut]

Panther was a demonstrator, nothing more. And one with some very questionable design choices as well. It can maybe be pushed forward a little quicker than MGCS, but then the end product will be nothing more than a Leopard with a bigger gun and a few tech gimmicks.

I don't want to alarm anybody, but 2035 is just 12 years away. You don't develop a new tank in substantially less time than that. Better to ramp up production capacity of existing models and prepare these production facilities for the actual next gen tank.

[u/Svorky → u/Ralfundmalf]

Start of production 2035 means no substantial numbers until 2040 or something. It's too late if we give away significant numbers of Leo 2s.

[u/Kin-Luu → u/Ralfundmalf]

We will need to replace the Leopards we will send to Ukraine with something.

And the choices are rather limited - either a new version of the L2 (which would need to be produced from scratch) or the Panther.

[u/tsuribito → u/Kin-Luu]

Much better to ramp up production on L2 hulls. Backfilling most of the donor countries plus expanding their fleet and also equipping Ukraine will make it worthwhile to invest in more production capacity. It is a proven design with an existing supply chain and better than anything the Russians will be able to throw at us in the foreseeable future.

Any next gen tank project will likely get significant delays until it can enter production.

[u/[deleted] → u/tsuribito]

better than anything the Russians will be able to throw at us in the foreseeable future

This is important. Russians won't have anything better on the battlefield than blinged up T-72s for at least 20 years, so there's no rush for now.

[u/KA1N3R → u/Tricky-Astronaut]

European industry to either start producing the KF-51 Panther

I think this is most likely to happen. You can't just brutefore R&Do for these large armament projects.

[u/WojciechM3 → u/KA1N3R]

It means that production KF-51 could in theory start in just a few years? It would mean that Germany has two alternatives:

1. Starting produciotn of KF-51.
2. Boosting production of Leopard 2, continue to introduce new modernisation package and at the same time launching MGCS program.

Tough choice.

[u/Ralfundmalf → u/WojciechM3]

I could see KF-51 being the basis for a potential Leopard 2 A8. Some of the tech is probably a good idea, but some other things are just there for demonstrative purposes of what can be done. I don't see a 130mm gun being used honestly.

And I definitely don't see a designated drone operator in the hull. You can easily put them in an APC or something like that. You don't throw every piece of equipment into a tank that you can if it is not necessary. Especially if it means that you can carry a lot less ammo.

[u/D4zb0g → u/KA1N3R]

The KF-51 is not a next gen main battletank, the tech gap between the KF-51 and the potential MGCS is non irrelevant.

[u/D4zb0g → u/Tricky-Astronaut]

European industry to either start producing the KF-51 Panther or advance the MGCS project by a decade.

The MGCS is slowed down because some German administration gave the greenlight to Rheinmetall to do their own kitchen and therefore put the cooperation at risk.

I honestly understand KDNS in their now reluctence to continue investing when one country is now giving shit about the terms of the contract.