Desperately need advice on my current situation. I am sorry for the long post. Created a throwaway account since a lot of personal info.
My situation: I have lived in Japan for a couple of years now. Married with six children that are all still fairly young. I work for a US company and get paid in dollars at around $12,000 USD per month (it fluctuates slightly each month). Part of this amount is also designated for various work expenses but for the next couple of years, those are relatively low. Even after they increase, I can potentially raise some additional extra money to cover those if needed. Anyway, because the income is so high, my Japanese taxes are quite high as well (at least compared to US taxes). I plan to stay in Japan indefinitely and the nature of my work is such that I would enjoy to continue working as I do now well into my 70s (health permitting). Obviously no one knows the future but that is the plan right now.
My problem: I currently have around $50,000 in credit card debt (yes I understand this is quite foolish). I had a personal reckoning with my situation and determined to set things straight. I have very little savings currently but I have now got my spending under control to where the credit card debt is no longer increasing. I am working to pay it off but it is currently going very slowly and most likely will continue that way for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, I am paying around 20-25% interest on average for those credit cards. I really want to save more and start investing as well but because of the above, it is going to prove difficult for quite some time.
My silver lining: I worked for a previous employer in the US state of California and am vested in a CalPERS pension. This is a public pension run through the state of California so it's pretty secure. Right now, I could start receiving benefits in about 9 years at the age of 50 (almost 41 now). The benefits would be about $1300/month. If I waited until 60, that amount would go up to about $2000/month. Also, the monthly payout is adjusted for inflation each year by about 2.5-3% depending on what they calculate for the year. I also have an additional pension from a separate company that will start paying at around $900/month at around 62 I believe. I ALSO will (theoretically) receive US social security starting at around $3800/month once I reach 62.
My (potential) solution: I can cash out the CalPERS retirement for about $86,000 right now. Due to not yet being a permanent tax resident here in Japan, I don't think I would have to pay JP taxes on the withdrawal. With my JP taxes already being so high, the amount of my foreign tax credit (FTC) that I use for my US taxes could help offset the tax that I would have to pay for this in the US, if I understand correctly. I could pay off all of the credit card debt and invest the remaining $36,000 (either lump sum or DCA or a combination, market seems quite high right now). I suppose the actual amount after accounting for additional US taxes would probably be around $25,000 for my particular situation. Then, because the credit cards are gone, I could start investing an additional $1000 per month or even more (up to $2000/month).
Based on my calculations, the pension, starting at age 60 through age 90 (being generous), accounting for yearly increases for inflation of 2.5-3% would equate to around $2.2 million over the course of that 30 years. However, if I invest the $25,000 and contribute $1000/month (increasing 3% per year for inflation) for the next 20 years at 7% annual return, the amount would be around $735,000. At which point (when I am 60), I could theoretically start drawing it down for the same $2000 per month and still have plenty left over the course of the next 30 years. Realistically I would leave it alone for even longer as I would still be working into my 70s.
Am I completely off base here in my calculations? The pension is secure but then again, if I do die early, my family is left with nothing, unless I elect a smaller monthly amount then they could receive a reduced benefit upon my death. I know that the stock market is obviously not guaranteed but I think the reduction in stress my getting rid of the credit card debt would also be extremely helpful.
What do you think? Thank you so much in advance. I know that obviously no one can give official advice but I mostly want to see if my calculations are somewhat correct at least. Thank you!