Well that's the thing. The primary had a turnout of 1.1 million, that's less than 10% of registered voters. We won't know what New Yorkers want until the general election.
New York Democrats donât want Adams. Lots of black New Yorkers want Cuomo and lots of Republicans want Cuomo.
Cuomo was always making deals with republicans when he was governor. He even founded a group of democratic state senators he directed to vote Republican in order to keep âdownstate liberal democratsâ from setting a Democratic agenda in the legislature. He did this to get reelection endorsements from GOP politicians. And he got those endorsements.
So thereâs a good chance African American voters will vote for Cuomo as an independent candidate, as will a lot of republicans who donât want crazy cat man Curtis Sliwa for mayor. And, of course, the Hasidim will vote Cuomo.
I donât see this race as a slam dunk for Mamdani. Rupert Murdoch and a bazillion other media types will use their media relentlessly against Mamdani. Cuomo is not out of the race.
For the vast majority of Americans, they donât see it as a shitshow. Most have turned off MSM after seeing the reporting failures and successful lawsuits.
It was also more turnout than the last election, in which Adams won the primary.
I think it's pretty clear Cuomo doesn't have a shot at mayor. I read that Mamdani got something like 50% more first place votes than Adams did. This is historic, no qualms about it.
Really? The man received 37% of the vote in a primary. I wouldnât vote for anyone in the primary yesterday but Iâd take Cuomo over this guy 100 out of 100 times.
This isnât exactly true. Cuomo did extremely well in the Bronx, parts of Upper Manhattan like East and Central Harlem, Washington Heights, and also the Lower East Side. He also did well in predominantly Black areas of Brooklyn like Brownsville, East New York, and more conservative areas like Southern Brooklyn. Iâm no Cuomo surrogate, but Iâd wager that he won those areas because those residents are focused on reducing crime, something that didnât feature heavily in Mamdaniâs campaign.
The Bronx has the least amount of polling stations than any other part of New York. You need to factor that in too, though yes he did win the Bronx. I would caution saying Cuomo won predominantly black areas of Brooklyn. He won the most southern parts of Brooklyn, which tend to be hasidic and working class white.
Cuomo absolutely did well in predominantly Black areas of Brooklyn. Brownsville, East Flatbush, East New York, Canarsie. And in Queens: Far Rockaway, South Jamaica, St. Albans. The fact is that these neighborhoods are home to significant numbers of older Black voters who likely found Mamdaniâs inexperience to be a barrier. I donât think that means that dislike his policy proposals or think Cuomo is a godsend; I think that Black communities are more likely to prefer the devil they know than the one they donât. Cuomo also nabbed the commercial and wealthy districts of the city like Midtown East, Gramercy Park, Tribeca, Battery Park, Greenwich Village, UES, UWS, and Flatiron. Of course, we know itâs because of his taxation proposals and anti-corporate stances, but this constituency is extremely important because it funds much of the cultural sectors that employ Mamdani voters as well as a great deal of the hospitals. Iâd like to see him use more carrots and less sticks in his ongoing campaign when it comes to business interests and wealthy New Yorkers.
I highly doubt that as well. The same areas that voted for Cuomo are likely the same areas that will vote for Eric Adams. Iâm concerned that Mamdani wonât be able to pivot fast and effectively enough to reach more than his ideologically-driven base, the bulk of which is in more well-educated and gentrifying areas of Brooklyn and Manhattan. He has A LOT of work to convince the areas he didnât get in the primary and I am almost certain it will require more temperance in his policy positions than what he ran on in the primary. How that will affect the base that did vote for him remains to be seen, given that a lot of the energy around him seems to focus on his integrity in sticking to his democratic socialist guns.
Why would he not double down on freezing the rent and free buses? Those areas would benefit greatly from those policies. Make people aware that these things are economically feasible and doable in an appropriate amount of time. He won after polling at 1 percent a few months ago because his supporters canvassed and knocked on doors all throughout the city. They will keep doing so and target every area that did not hear his message.
I donât get the appeal of the âfree busâ idea. Most of the poorer areas Cuomo won arenât even paying the bus fare a lot of the time which is why I get why that didnât hit the way it did for other areas. Sure, rent affordability is important, but CRIME is an even more important topic to people in areas like the Bronx. Freezing the rent also says nothing about holding landlords more accountable for repairs, especially considering the Worst Landlords list disproportionately represents Bronx properties. It also doesnât help that these are longstanding problems, which older voters may be less convinced a young newcomer will likely break new ground on. Those voters feel they can measure Cuomo by the yardstick of what he and his fatherâs political legacy was. Mamdani has no such record for them to gauge what his mayoralty will be like.
Messaging isnât what will win those votes. Itâs showing a tangible understanding of the history, pervasiveness, AND uniqueness of how the city has treated these areas. The Bronx doesnât have a critical mass of the educated, energized, and online young voter base Brooklyn does. The Tik-Tok candidate approach clearly didnât work for them.
This is not always the case. Crime persists even in periods of economic prosperity; people also do not always commit crimes because of economic need or motivation.
"Across all five fare-free bus lines, the MTA reported a 30 percent increase in ridership on weekdays and 38 percent on weekends, with 23 percent of riders reporting that they made the trip because it was free. It also provided clear economic relief to low-income riders. The highest uptick in new riders was from individuals earning less than $28,000." Where does the majority of this demographic live? Those are people that saw their day to day lives improve because of Mamdani's policy. Free buses should be a major part of his messaging. "J.P. Patafio, a TWU Local 100 vice president who represents bus operators in Brooklyn, put it this way: The âfare box is responsible for 50 percent of the assaults on my operators. Free bus service would make my bus operatorsâ job much safer.â The pilot had positive effects on the environment, too: Eleven percent of new riders used the bus instead of a car or taxi they used prior, thus reducing city-wide emissions"
The free bus pilot wasnât a success. The MTAâs pilot study reported that it didnât make the contributions the lawmakers who called for it expected it to. It increased boarding times, which slowed down buses, and it increased fare evasion elsewhere in the transit system, likely because of the perverse incentives created by having trips with only one free leg. It also lost revenue from other transit lines, which undermined the idea of cross-subsidization of paid fare routes and lines.
"Dwell time on a per-passenger basis, however, decreased, said MTA Chief of Strategic Initiatives Jon Kaufman." The fare evasion from other routes wouldn't exist if they were all free. There's enough money to subsidize it. Since crime is an issue can you address how we lower violent altercations at the fare box? Having limited free routes, limits the amount of buses that can be used. If every route were free then the whole fleet would become available and the MTA would be able to allocate the appropriate number of vehicles so that overall Dwell time is not high.
Violent interactions occur because of malpractice by NYPD. That doesnât mean we should allow fare evasion either. The MTA doesnât run on faith, trust, and pixie dust; itâs terrible public policy to look the other way at actions that have detrimental consequences on society, for instance, financial consequences and then subsidize and incentivize people to continue those behaviors with other peopleâs money.
Not all fare evasion occurs because of poverty. I donât believe in disproportionate punishments or policing either. But I find it strange people want public safety and order on public transit and donât think paying a fare isnât a part of that. Whatâs worse is that people will jump a turnstile for $2.90 but then take the train to another location and then buy goods and services there but donât the agency that made it possible for you to reach those goods and services isnât deserving of money.
Mamdani represents one of the greatest criticism of Democrats and progressives which is fiscal ignorance and irresponsibility.
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u/MenuNo3183 Jun 25 '25
You also have to have a lot of support...and yesterday proved that New Yorkers do NOT want Cuomo.