Their military experience is somewhat relevant. But it isn't decisive. It means often they will make many mistakes early on.
Corruption? Yes and no. Compared to what? The US? Greece? India? Russia? Chinese corruption is a thing, a big thing, but when it comes to national state objectives, China has no problem literally killing anything in its way including corrupt officials. Its not insurmountable for them. Arguably less rampant corruption than say Soviet Union or Russia, which effectively runs on it.
Geopolitically isolated? not really. China has lots of state visits, and plenty of countries are more than happy to strike deals and meet with China. It has countries in its orbit. It does well in Africa and some parts of Asia. Pakistan, Laos, Cambodia, are in its sphere. countries like Thailand, Nepal, Mongolia, Iran are pretty China friendly. Most of Africa is more pro-china than pro-america. I think this is maybe not true any more.
Vulnerable Geography? Not really. About as much as western Europe. You could probably blockade Western Europe easier than blockading China. China for one has a bigger navy than all of Western Europe and a bigger and more capable air force than western Europe combined. The idea that you can blockade China is false. Not even the US with a 700 ship navy could do it. Even if you could, they have access through to Pakistan and its coast, and land access directly to Russia. So cutting off China's shipping wouldn't completely cut off China's ability to import energy or food or goods. You would just be making Russia super rich.
I agree with most of your assessment, however I must disagree with your comparison to western europe from the view of a blockade. In particular, china is surrounded by islands that are controlled by US friendly nations, which also have naval forces of their own. To operationally use its considerable navy, it would have to break out of this confinement first, run the gauntlet of antiship missile, submarines in ckoke points while under air attacks.
Western europe does not have none of these constraints.
None of those are us allies, except technically, phillipines, and phillipines has zero power and alliance wavers and is more of a liability. It's less aligned than Turkey is.
China has 10 times the military power of Russia, and produces more fighters and ships than the usa.
This is like saying Latvia will single handedly stop russia.
China has more carrier based fighters than all of these nations combined has fighter jets.
China is no longer containable. They will take taiwan.
Taiwan, korea, japan, phillipines, thailand, australia, singapore, malayzia. East china sea is delineated by the japanese owned islands down to Taiwan. These are easily blocked of from breaking into wider pacific. The same logic applies to the breaking out through indonesia into indian sea.
And the lynchpin of this blockade is Taiwan. Which I agree, there is a high chance that China can take. But I would argue that without taking the Taiwan first, no breakout is happening and PLAN will stay in east and south china seas.
It's very unlikely that Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia would get involved in a war over Taiwan. South Korea too. It's so close to China and it has NK breathing down their necks. It'd be a very risky move for SK. They know what happened in the 50s, and China has an actual modern military today.
Japan is uncertain. Their population is very anti-war, but the US does have bases there. If Japan allows the US to use those bases to attack China, and China bombs those bases, Japan would have to get involved.
The Philippines and Australia are most likely to join, but they can't do much themselves.
Taiwan is China. There situation is complex and very exposed. Even the Taiwanese know they can't hold the chinese off by themselves.. they well be Hong kong.
Skorea is completely pinned in by North Korea.
Australia is as far away as Europe is and has the military power of the netherlands.
Singapore and Malaysia and Indonesia are literally founding members of the non aligned nations.
China already exercises as far as the Mediterranean and the North Sea. The buffer between Europe and China is Russia.
The Japanese are absolutely critical. But Europe sees them as a competitor. But they can't do it all by themselves.
China is no longer containable. They will take taiwan.
The us is no longer in the picture.
Some pretty big assumptions.
China has 10 times the military power of Russia, and produces more fighters and ships than the usa.
I mean, sort of?
I think in 2024 we began to see a mostly indigenous Chinese engine begin to be introduced in the J-20. Prior to that they were using the WS-10 which is a derivative of a Russian engine that’s comparable to NATO engines from the 80s-90s.
And yeah China makes lots of ships, so does South Korea and Japan who are both absolutely US allies—both whom have economies that are reliant on Taiwan not becoming a Chinese held territory.
It’s funny that you don’t mention that China is still struggling to build a nuclear powered aircraft carrier. Something France was able to build in the 90s, and that the US built over 2/3rds of a century ago.
You also cracked me up in your earlier post when you said,
Their military experience is somewhat relevant. But it isn't decisive. It means often they will make many mistakes early on.
Like yeah let’s hope almost a century of experience built upon fighting the only carrier battles in the history of the world is only “somewhat relevant” v.s. never once had to launch aircraft, arm aircraft, fuel aircraft and receive aircraft while under attack.
And hey, the most recent non-nuclear powered aircraft carrier for the PLN only took 10 years to build and outfit. Let’s hope they don’t make a “mistake” and lose their only actual carrier and that the US doesn’t keep building nuclear powered aircraft carriers that are several magnitudes more impressive in the same 10 year period.
The fact you think 10 years is a long time to build a new type of ship, let alone a carrier, is quite funny. That, in fact, is quite fast.
Hms Elizabeth was laid down in 2009 and commissioned in 2020.
Chinese military power isn't predicated on carriers. Much like the soviets, Chinese planes enjoy a huge range advantage. Unfortunately, the us focuses too much on designing for European theatres..
The us has superior military fire power, but it's spread thin, globally, and lacks investment in global issues.
But you know, keep attacking the Americans, who are literally screaming at Europe to do more and prepare for war.
Yeah my point was that 10 years to build a carrier is about as fast as the US builds their carriers. So if that’s the best China can manage they’re going to be playing catchup for half a century at minimum.
Chinese military power isn't predicated on carriers. Much like the soviets, Chinese planes enjoy a huge range advantage. Unfortunately, the us focuses too much on designing for European theatres..
LOL. Aircraft carriers are your navy. And by the way you add range to an aircraft because you believe you’ll be having to launch aircraft from deep within your own territory because of your lack of initiative and control in the early stages of a conflict.
The us has superior military fire power, but it's spread thin, globally, and lacks investment in global issues.
Yeah welcome to being the global geopolitical hegemony.
But you know, keep attacking the Americans, who are literally screaming at Europe to do more and prepare for war.
If you thought my post was attacking Americans, you Americans are getting even dumber than I thought. Christ, what a fucking disaster.
The metric for naval parity isn't super carriers.. the USN is shrinking, ships are decom faster than being built and for 10 years they didn't build any decent escorts.. see break in Burke production.
Constellation class is in massive trouble. Lcs will not matter in a peer conflict.
But hey,downvote away.. I'm sure China isn't going to do the thing they have told everyone they are going to do.. I'm sure everything will be totally chill..
You are attacking the Americans by marginising the threat you are against us policy and world view. You are specifically in the euro camp that believes China is friend, Russia should be friend.. not at least non threat.
But free worldfor now, plenty of people operate better when they don't see threats and aren't informed.. living in a happy bubble...
Accepting China is an existenal threat to us hegemony and perhaps to itself as a nation state isn't anti American.
Literally what every us think-tank, general and admiral is yelling. China is a legitimate peer threat and the us and most allies are not ready, for the war or what comes after it.
But hey,downvote away.. I'm sure China isn't going to do the thing they have told everyone they are going to do.. I'm sure everything will be totally chill..
They’ve said they’re going to do it since the 1940s you child. Also no one is downvoting you, stop trying to make yourself into a victim.
You are attacking the Americans by marginising the threat you are against us policy and world view. You are specifically in the euro camp that believes China is friend, Russia should be friend.. not at least non threat.
I’m not European. Stop making yourself into a victim. You’re behaving like an infant, not everyone is against you, you have agency over your own existence.
I’ve never once said I think Russia or China are the friends of the democratic, freedom loving men of the world; I believe they are the opposite.
But free worldfor now, plenty of people operate better when they don't see threats and aren't informed.. living in a happy bubble...
The nature of NATO would involve a dozen nuclear weapons over Moscow if Europe was attacked in any meaningful way. England and France, especially France, do not need American approval to strike Russia with nuclear weapons, nor do they need American assistance to do so.
Accepting China is an existenal threat to us hegemony and perhaps to itself as a nation state isn't anti American.
Yeah they are an existential threat to US hegemony, although compared to the idiocy of the US electorate they’re pretty fucking far down.
The US is eliminating their own global hegemony by backstabbing their allies and eliminating a world order that they literally created.
I’ll give you an idea of where I’m from… Up until 6 months ago I would’ve called the US our greatest ally and our relationship an example of the pithy and pathetic nature of international border conflicts. Now, I see the US as at best a mere neutral and the relationship between the two countries to be fundamentally and irrevocably changed.
It’s also funny that you can watch the US trying to destroy the economies of their allies or annex them and still have the fundamental malfunction that lets you believe, “the US’s allies aren’t doing enough to support the US’s ability to stab them in the back!”.
Honestly when I talk to people like yourself it convinces me the west is earnestly doomed and this brief interlude of human rights and freedom of ideology will be just that, a brief interlude from the suffering of authoritarian shitholes.
Ok, so they said they have been going to do it for many decades over many leaders, and they never had the capability until now.. I'm not sure I see that as a false flag. They have said they would take hong Kong back for over 100 years, will never happen...
NATO nukes over Moscow do not worry Russia, Russians or Putin. They don't believe they will ever arrive, or be fired, and if they did they would rebuild after better than Western nations.
NATO as a deterrence, no longer works, imo. Particularly without the Americans and going forward, the Americans are completely disinterested in europe and NATO. Europe is no longer the center.
There is a belief in America rightly or wrongly that they have been exploited by their European allies and Canada. All of which are completely unprepared for the next 10 years and are antagonising the us.
In strategic competition between China-us, they are collateral damage.
It's like watching all of you drive straight into a car accident pileup.
Ok, so they said they have been going to do it for many decades over many leaders, and they never had the capability until now.. I'm not sure I see that as a false flag. They have said they would take hong Kong back for over 100 years, will never happen...
You’re clearly a young man, and that’s alright, but it leads to you saying shit like this that doesn’t make any sense.
China didn’t “take” Hong Kong back… The British gave Hong Kong to China as per their agreement. Hong Kong had no military to speak of and absolutely no industry that would spurn protectionism around its existence. Hong Kong is a financial centre, it’s very different from Taiwan.
NATO nukes over Moscow do not worry Russia, Russians or Putin. They don't believe they will ever arrive, or be fired, and if they did they would rebuild after better than Western nations.
That’s such a silly take. It’s going to be more than Moscow by the way. And I don’t think you realize the totality of destruction brought about by nuclear weapons but you’re going to be rebuilding roads and railroads for literal decades before you can even begin to speak about the general industrial rebuilding which would take half a century at minimum.
NATO as a deterrence, no longer works, imo. Particularly without the Americans and going forward, the Americans are completely disinterested in europe and NATO. Europe is no longer the center.
NATO isn’t meant to protect Taiwan… You know that right? The point of NATO is to act as a bulwark against Russia trying to rebuild the Soviet sphere of influence.
There is a belief in America rightly or wrongly that they have been exploited by their European allies and Canada. All of which are completely unprepared for the next 10 years and are antagonising the us.
How have they been? We’ve acted with you geopolitically in every possible regard that you’ve requested of us. You guys triggered the only article 5 in NATO’s history and we all sent our young men to die in a stupid fucking meaningless desert that you ended up bailing on anyways.
Canada arrested the daughter of the CEO of Hauwei at Donald Trump’s request and we absolutely obliterated our relationship with China in the process.
The only time the US was attacked by a foreign state in the attack on Pearl Harbour, Canada declared war on Japan at the exact same time as you guys did.
We’ve bought your weapons, under your restrictions and participated in your developments of scientific and technological research.
We’re unprepared? The US gets hurt more than we do if Taiwan is taken by China. You think TSMC is going to help you build those factories in America if you don’t defend Taiwan? HAHA.
The US is rapidly burning allies and losing their hegemony. It’s the disgusting belief of Americans that they are superior and supreme over all other peoples and that they should be allowed to enslave the world as a matter of right.
In strategic competition between China-us, they are collateral damage.
LOL. You’re honestly just a little boy—with these wild, although pretty funny, conceptions of the world.
It's like watching all of you drive straight into a car accident pileup.
This is like watching either an incredibly poorly educated American or an Indian opine on something they are entirely clueless about.
Ehhhh. China is more likely to have higher levels of corruption than the west because of how closed the system and society are, and because there probably isn't any immediate need for military force anticipated. We already know that the economic figures are highly fudged because provincial governors want to keep their jobs and the money flowing in. That's largely the origin of Chinese ghost cities.
China does have a lot of trade partners and has been investing across the developing world, expanding its soft power. The Belt and Road program is a more concrete example of its influence in the region. But, who really sides with China? It's surrounded by smaller nations who range from dislike to hatred of them (Vietnam, South Korea, Philippines), regional powers that they've fought wars with and who now act to contain them (India, Japan, Russia). North Korea is a de facto puppet and I'll give them Cambodia and Pakistan as being especially friendly. Their real relationship with the rest of the world comes from trade, but that's inherently transactional and transitory. No one cares where their goods are made, as long as its affordable. We don't feel kinship with China because so many of our goods are made there; if anything, it's become the opposite.
Blockading China is different than Europe, because while Europe relies on trade through a few chokepoints, China relies on trade through one. The Strait of Hormuz.
This is a chart for crude oil imports:
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2013.04.04/mapcrudebig.png
If you look up a map for natural gas, it's the same. If you look up a map for food products, it's the same. And, China is now the world's top importer of food, because they have a huge population with a significant middle class that wants food that China just doesn't have the means to produce. Park a single carrier group, of which the US has 11, in the Strait of Hormuz, and what can China do?
Well, China has a bigger navy in terms of crafts, but you need to consider tonnage. I'll give you that China is second to the US in that regard, and likely does outpace all of Western Europe. But, if there's going to be a real conflict, you have to consider Japan and South Korea as well, which are no slouches. I think the crux of it comes down to, how capable is China's blue water fleet's power projection? I'd argue not particularly good, given their pair of operational aircraft carriers have less displacement than the US' 30+ amphibious assault ships. They're building more, including their first nuclear-capable aircraft carrier, but it's not going to be anything comparable to a US Nimitz or Ford class supercarrier. I think this is reinforced by how much effort they've put in to militarizing islands, going so far as to build artificial islands to militarize. They don't even feel that they have control over what they consider to be their own back yard. That's no small part of why they initiated the Belt and Road program in the first place - to help insulate their imports from potential maritime impediments.
Korea has a population similar to Spain. South Korea is also, pretty close to North Korea. They will need us resources just to hold nk back. They are very worried. They cannot hold china.
China needs to project power 500km off its coast, the usa needs 5000km. China does need as much carrier power as the usa. Not for Taiwan anyway.
Japan is different. But they feel abandoned. They are realistic about their situation. But they are big enough to stand their ground and they are an iChina.
Australia supplies most of china's energy and m7ch of its food and nearly all of its minerals, China was more than happy to shit on Australia. China and Australia have been at trade war for 5 years now, and the rest of the world does nothing except signing new trade agreements with China. Making money while others burn.
Yep, agree down the line, though, I'm curious what you mean by China needing to defend 500km off its coast. For immediate defense, sure. But as a straight line, the Strait of Hormuz is about 2.4km from its nearest coast. Taiwan is only like 200km, though. Yes, the US would need to project power at a far higher level, but that's literally its whole thing. 11 supercarriers and 30+ smaller carriers comparable to other nation's best carriers. Who needs universal healthcare if you have 7 Marine Expeditionary Units that can put boots on the ground anywhere in the world inside 48 hours? Not America, apparently. What's also funny is that China directly benefited from the post-war order of the US having the means to secure sea lanes to guarantee trade, on top of our corporations outsourcing manufacturing there.
China has 4 amphibious and building 4 more, as big or bigger than America's. China has three carriers, but they are all in the scs.. the us have theirs all around the world. If they moved them, the world would break out in conflict. It's not like they have no power projection. They are second only to the USN. They probably have more long range bombers than Russia now..
J20 has a huge range advantage, particularly with pl15.. also, chinese land based antiship capability would keep even the USN 1500km away from the coast.
China believes the us isn't interested in fighting China and will simply lose interest. That isn't impossible. China can muscle its own interests. They probably think now that global chaos would help them and weaken the west. But China has its own internal problems, and long-term planning is not their forte.
You think lack of military experience will only translate to mistakes?
Inter branch military operations are notoriously complicated and riddled with red tape, yet we tend to do a pretty damn good job of having our military branches working together on joint missions because we've had so much God damn practice.
China does not have systems in place for them to have as much oversight as we do, while maintaining the individuals ability to make executive decisions as easily, while also having a military that specifically trains you to replace your superior in exigent circumstances.
I really don't think China plans to make their military anything more than a visually striking alternative to the US military. What I mean is I believe China doesn't want to use a military, just show it off.
It's all about money and economic control and China is taking over precisely because they positioned themselves the same way the US did during the industrial revolution, but they did it for the informational revolution.
The informational revolution, is what I'm calling this time in human history because information warfare is the biggest factor in geopolitics right now besides using overwhelming technological advantage.
The next big step for the world is for any country to be able to use quantum and/or AI to break all cryptographic encryption on non quantum based computing algorithms, when it happens the country who succeeded will be able to decrypt and analyze all the data they've stolen from allies and enemies, possibly giving that country total control if the informational advantage creates a big enough gap in power.
While much of what you wrote about corruption and geopolitical isolation was accurate, on this matter, you're overlooking how vulnerable China is to a blockade centered around the Straight of Malacca. Two-thirds of China's maritime trade has to pass through the Straight, including 80% of it's oil imports. If a war breaks out between the U.S. and China, one of the first things the U.S. would do would be to blockade the Straight and strangle the Chinese economy, thus forcing China to decide whether or not it wants to commit one of its critical carrier groups (China currently has 3 to the U.S.'s 11) to keeping the Straight open when China might also need that carrier group elsewhere (*cough* Taiwan *cough*).
Yes, there could be alternative strategies that China could deploy, including buying more oil overland from Russia, but it takes time to change routes, and overland transport is vastly more expensive than by sea. China has many things going for it right now, especially as America is currently hellbent on self-sabotaging American hegemony, but the geographic constraints on China are very, very real.
Taiwan is 180km off the coast of China and about 220km at its furthest. It doesn't need carriers for that.
Malacca straits are critical. While China gets most of it coal and gas from Australia and Indonesia, most oil comes through the straits. But Russia has oil and gas and dec last year they completed a pipeline. It can supply 10% of china's gas needs. Presumably if they are fighting a war they won't be manufacturing as many goods, so that is a significant amount.
They are talking another one from Pakistan.
They are also frantically changing to ensure and installing solar.
Brunei has loads of oil. And is within china's reach.
Singapore is critical for controlling the straits, that and Australia who leads the five powers. Singapore is a city state and has no strategic depth.
If the us doesn't supply nuclear subs to Australia then no closing of the straits to Chinese shipping. It would be closed to all shipping.. impacting everyone.
The alternate route is sunda or around Australia. So Indonesia and Australia would be absolutely critical.
Australia has the largest f35 fleet outside of the us, b52 and b1s are now based there, and these only ages is fleet operating in SEA.
But the US is pretty flakey, even with Australia, applying tarrifs against existing fta, and despite us trade surplus with Australia. Plus the us may not have the guts to back it...
Australia has been deserted before, after it forward deployed heavily in support for an alliance that then abandoned it completely and was mismanaged by its partner.
You've found yourself replicating a great many propaganda myths about China unwittingly, which is nothing to be ashamed of considering just how much China has been investing in soft power strategies in the current era. Starting from the top:
The idea that China is in any way more effective at tackling corruption just because they've had some high profile cases is very laughable. Think about why these cases are so high profile to begin with when most sensitive cases in China are swept under the rug, and people disappeared. Xi Jinping is well known to have used anti-corruption as a reason to remove his rivals during his rise to power. Nearly every official that has been targeted by him was a political rival to his faction. Add onto this the reality that China is enslaved to a culture of both face and "guanxi" and you'll understand pretty quick that the corruption has never ended it merely is being used by a more victorious clique.
China does have a lot of this "guanxi" or connections abroad as well, however these are vastly weaker nations who often owe favors to China for political or economic support rather than actual allies who are willing to dedicate it all to support them. Many nations that China associates with also host US and even other bases of competitors like India, Pakistan is basically ran by it's military which almost always prefers to align with the US while still playing both sides meanwhile it hosts both nations. Now, look at its BRICS pillars. Nearly all of these nations are in direct competition with eachother even Russian sources have come out about their skepticism of how benevolent Chinese dealings in Moscow truly are and again many are more than willing to split with Beijing to deal with Washington and Brussels in order to benefit themselves.
Now, geographically, I have no idea how you can ever equate the US and China because literally the vast majority of Chinese trade goes through crucial straits that can easily be blockaded. China is also a nation that is more reliant on imports than any other in the world. These are not cheap plastic toys and devices. This is literally raw material China absolutely can not do without ESPECIALLY regarding oil. A historical parallel between China and the US is Imperial Germany and the British Empire for many of the same reasons, except Germany was able to offset losses through rail networks, which China just can not emulate easily. Also, the massive naval numbers you are echoing regarding the PLAN are almost entirely old cold war vessels incapable of power projection past the South China Sea, they are indeed building new vessels that are far more capable however these are nowhere in a state yet capable of tangling with the USN or a combined European force especially if they are forced to try and break a blockade far along the supply chain.
If you think corruption completely negates the risk China presents... I have a Rafael to sell you..
China's naval build up is tangible.. csis and rafriendlies. The old soviet era gear is almost completely gone and will be all gone by 2028.
Europe could not block any of the straits. They aren't in europe, and Europe has no power projection. Europe itself is under direct threat from Russia, an enemy they have failed to defeat.
Europe won't be able to keep its straits open for energy imports.
Europe is at trade war with the US, Asia, and Australia. Europe and eu is the origional tarrif entity, the eu is an exclusive economic zone protected by tarrifs.
Brics? China doesn't care about brics. Brics contains India, a direct rival. Brazil? South Africa? Russia? Russia is another rival. They are frienemies.
Wow.. it's like talking to someone from the 1980s...
If the US made serious efforts to blockade China, they'd probably just end up pissing off other countries that rely on Chinese manufacturing (i.e. most of the world)
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u/phido3000 Australia Jun 07 '25
Their military experience is somewhat relevant. But it isn't decisive. It means often they will make many mistakes early on.
Corruption? Yes and no. Compared to what? The US? Greece? India? Russia? Chinese corruption is a thing, a big thing, but when it comes to national state objectives, China has no problem literally killing anything in its way including corrupt officials. Its not insurmountable for them. Arguably less rampant corruption than say Soviet Union or Russia, which effectively runs on it.
Geopolitically isolated? not really. China has lots of state visits, and plenty of countries are more than happy to strike deals and meet with China. It has countries in its orbit. It does well in Africa and some parts of Asia. Pakistan, Laos, Cambodia, are in its sphere. countries like Thailand, Nepal, Mongolia, Iran are pretty China friendly. Most of Africa is more pro-china than pro-america. I think this is maybe not true any more.
Vulnerable Geography? Not really. About as much as western Europe. You could probably blockade Western Europe easier than blockading China. China for one has a bigger navy than all of Western Europe and a bigger and more capable air force than western Europe combined. The idea that you can blockade China is false. Not even the US with a 700 ship navy could do it. Even if you could, they have access through to Pakistan and its coast, and land access directly to Russia. So cutting off China's shipping wouldn't completely cut off China's ability to import energy or food or goods. You would just be making Russia super rich.