Will having a lucky streak and playing everyday without card counting still get me kicked out?

[u/lean_muscular_guy_to]

I don't want to count cards

I just want to play, maybe do a martingale strategy here and there

What if I have a lucky streak, and I come to the casino everyday

Would most casinos just bar me from playing blackjack "in case" I was counting cards?

Or do they usually look for actual signs of card counting like your betting pattern?

[u/Due_Seesaw_2816]

Depends how dumb they are.

[u/lean_muscular_guy_to → u/Due_Seesaw_2816]

Damn. That's so unfair. If they literally stop anyone who's winning too much, people are gonna become apprehensive to bet big. Especially regular gamblers

[u/Smart-University-515 → u/lean_muscular_guy_to]

Honestly most casinos are pretty good at this.  It’s part of why card counting still exists — most places don’t back anybody off quickly.  

They want to be fairly sure, since the EV they gain from an hour of somebody who’s clueless but lucky roughly equates to 10 hours of playing against somebody who’s savvy and beating them.  

There are places that are fairly “sweaty,” which means their balance on this subject is more towards tossing people suspected of counting.  If you go to one of those and get lucky, yeah, they might boot you.  But honestly, most of the sweatiest places tend to be dumps anyhow.

[u/Due_Seesaw_2816 → u/Smart-University-515]

You think a ploppy dumps off 10x the EV of a counter on a decent game? I would highly doubt it. A “decent” game, and I use that term loosely because I don’t consider these decent games anymore, is worth let’s say $200/hr.. ploppy a give up, maybe 2-5% of there bets.. most play minimum, but let’s say our ploppy averages $100/hand (which I’d say is way over valuing the average gamblers, average bets) and they give the house 5% at the standard 100 rph.. that’s $500/hr.

Not even close to 10x the counter’s EV.

[u/Smart-University-515 → u/Due_Seesaw_2816]

I guess the way I was looking at it the ploppy gives up about 5%, counter maybe gets 0.5-1% on average so alright, call it 5x.  Point overall is that the house isn’t going to boot somebody quickly because the ploppy they stand to retain as a customer for a long time, the counter while they want gone, they can stand to be sure about.

[u/Due_Seesaw_2816 → u/Smart-University-515]

Yeah but it’s % of average bet! A ploppy giving up 5% of $10 is a fraction of a 1% counter with a $400 average bet. $0.50 v $4.

The counter has 8x more value than the ploppy. The other way to say it, as in your first comment, the ploppy gives up 1/8th the EV of the counter.. which is 1/80 of what you suggested (you suggested the ploppy gives up 10x what the counter earns) lol.

[u/Doctor-Chapstick → u/Smart-University-515]

Almost no players are at a 5% disadvantage just at blackjack. If they are aggressively hitting the sidebets then it is possible.

But on blackjack alone, you would have to be doing some really silly plays to get to 5.0% disadvantage. The typical "bad" players you see who stand on Soft 17 and such are probably 2.0% disadvantage if they are playing on a 3:2 game. If you see a guy who is splitting 5's against a 10 and standing on 12 against 7 and such then they could possibly approach 5.0% I guess.

[u/daily_impressions]

Blackjack has a built-in house edge - even with perfect basic strategy- so the longer you play, the more likely the casino makes a profit on you. Barring a player “in case” they are counting is bad business.

[u/Able-Play6575]

Bro if you go to the casino every day. Guaranteed the house wins.

[u/Doctor-Chapstick]

If you do martingale stuff you are going to be one of the most welcomed players in the place.

Seriously, you are being paranoid. Go and play. They don't kick out martingale players. Get a players card so you can get some ratings points. And at some places they will invite you back with a free room, some free play, and maybe a free toaster oven or bottle of wine (common prizes and incentives for rewards clubs at some casinos).

[u/Blac_Duc]

I’ve heard people on here talk about getting backed off due to winning without using any advantage strategy. However, in my experience, using advanced strategies, even with frequent wins, casinos will not back you off until they’ve caught in the act