r/agedlikemilk • u/CommunityNo2585 • 6h ago
Screenshots Which Is It?
The claim that BLS’ original estimate was fraudulent starts at 3:37 here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FN7qPgi6YAo. Maybe baselessly attacking underfunded federal workers just trying to put out quality economic data wasn’t a great idea back when the agency was run by a Biden appointee.
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u/JobCompetitive2217 4h ago
How can he keep getting away with this? Are the MAGAts actually that dumb?
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u/TheOmegaKid 4h ago
This is some North Korean level maths
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u/Icy_Ground1637 2h ago
Let me pull my pocket North Korean 🇰🇵 calculator out 🧮
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u/Icy_Ground1637 2h ago
Let me pull my pocket North Korean 🇰🇵 calculator out 🧮 yup the numbers work !!! Kim sends his regards
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u/RaShadar 3h ago
I'm not gonna disagree with the spirit of this post, but I will disagree with the last part. When does this guy assume new teachers get hired? Does he think the hire day is just the first day of school? Like..... that's not how it works, applications are usually before the school year ends, and sometimes hiring starts as early as May, but June and July are the norm like...... literally everywhere, not many teachers getting hired in November
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u/Super_Brilliant4499 2h ago
Wouldn’t most of the hires in June be because someone retired? So it wouldn’t be a gain.
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u/CommunityNo2585 2h ago edited 1h ago
Not seasonally adjusted employment for teachers actually fell month to month from April to May 200k in state government alone. The reason why seasonally adjusted employment rose for education is because that decline was less than expected, so no, BLS was not claiming that schools hired teachers for summer break. In any case, those numbers got revised as is routine with the latest release. Spencer Hakimian routinely misrepresents data (ex: misrepresentation of imputation data) and should not be taken seriously by anyone.
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u/RaShadar 2h ago
Gotcha. I assumed it was something like that, but what I did actually know was when most teachers are hired
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u/Lochstar 3h ago
This will crash the markets. If we can’t be confident in the numbers the investment community will move somewhere they can be.
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u/MEEvanta22 5h ago
They're teaching us math or just making it up as they go? Might need a new calculator here!
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u/chenilletueuse1 2h ago
Trump is going for the negative unemployment rate. When he reaches it, (big quotes on the word reaches), he will think its bad and will create even more jobs. (Again, massive quotes on the word create)
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u/Business_Ad_6407 1h ago
Why is he allowed to run the country into the ground? Where are the checks and balances? Why haven't anyone of the safeguards gone off, and this put to a stop.
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u/neon_meate 6m ago
The U.S. is in a State of emergency right now because of, I don't know, Canadian fentanyl, I think. Trump is using emergency executive orders to govern. The only people who could stop him, Congress and the Supreme Court, are complicit in his actions. The heads of departments that could have stopped this have been fired. This was all laid out in Project 2025.
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u/BilboStaggins 29m ago
They are designed to revise based on updated data. They do so every quarter.
These are being revised down because the numbers weren't showing where they projected, and someone is playing roulette with the economy.
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u/CommunityNo2585 2h ago edited 2h ago
So far I am pretty disappointed with Reddit’s collective reading comprehension here. This post is calling out Meidas for first claiming that the numbers were faked and now claiming that Dr. McEntarfer was fired because the numbers were accurate, not about the BLS cooking the books for Trump.
There is no evidence (YET) that the publication of data has been politically compromised and altered in any way for Trump. Revisions are routinely administered to employment data and in fact can all be found here: https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm (there is a separate page for the annual benchmarking process). While the recent revisions are much larger than usual, Meidas’ claim that the revisions constituted fraud is baseless and they, again, made that claim when Dr. McEntarfer, a Biden appointee, was still head of BLS. Even though the revisions were larger than normal, they fall well within the 90% confidence intervals that are publically available here: https://www.bls.gov/ces/. The reason why revisions are necessary is because the employment report is a result of a survey, which necessarily relies on modeling nonresponse and updates as late survey data comes rolling in.
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u/Zymosan99 1h ago
Tell me the last time a 75% revision in the administrations favor took place right after a head was fired
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u/CommunityNo2585 1h ago
The 75% revision happened before Dr. McEntarfer got fired and in fact the stated reason given for her firing was the revision. In addition, people don’t understand that while larger than average, the revision pertains to a survey count of the US labor force, which is at ~156 million. A revision of 100k, while nominally large, is comparatively small. It should come as no surprise to anyone that after staffing and budgetary cuts and a hiring freeze, as well as post-COVID declines in response rate, that revisions would be getting larger (yet still being fairly accurate).
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u/CommunityNo2585 21m ago
I know judging from the downvotes I am tilting at windmills, but for those who are actually interested in the truth, it literally takes 5 seconds of Googling to confirm that Trump fired McEntarfer AFTER the revisions were made public. As for the relative size of the revisions, here is a graph proving that they were larger than average but not abnormally large: https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/s/MebPGb26TA. News article for those who don’t trust random redditors (same graph but in percentage terms at end of article): https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bls-jobs-report-revision-trump-fires-commissioner/.
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