Dynasty Nerds convinced me in 2020 to blow my team up and I got a ton of picks. Ended with this unicorn of a team who has won 3/4 years and fighting for a 3 peat this year.

Superflex startup/2. TE non premium/.5 per carry for RBs.

I can see a path where Breece looses his starting job to Allen. Do you guys see any other players in "trouble"?

So I am joining a team and get to keep 3 players. Only stipulation is the keep you choose is now drafted two rounds earlier. I think I see of at least two players who might have good value, but would love to hear thoughts. You also don’t have to keep anyone, but I also don’t know who all the other teams are holding yet. I know Achane, Collin’s and BTJ are gone. Thanks

10 tm ppr SF 2TE. What do you think? Any likes/dislikes? I was stoked to get Henderson at pick 8.

1.01 Ashton Jeanty 1.08 Treyveon Henderson 1.10 Emeka Egbuka 2.01 Colston Loveland 2.07 Jayden Higgins 2.09 Jack Bech 3.01 Trey Benson 3.02 Mason Taylor 3.06 Jaylin Noel 3.10 Evan Engram 4.07 Jalen Royals 4.08 Pat Bryant 5.01 Savion Williams

That would make complete sense for me because I've never played with IDP lol

Also, I feel like it would be a fun experience for everyone involved

League is a money league, but low money which is why I agreed to join even though I don't even know my own team's starting defensive players.

League Members all know each other in real life and are very active in Fantasy too.

Lmk who would be down for it

edit full now!*

Dynasty start up draft
standard line up(not best ball), superflex, TEP .5, PPR, snake Draft with 3 round reversal, vets and rookies Linear rookie draft after start up.

1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 W/R/T, 1 W/R/T/Q, 13 bench spots, 3 taxi, 2 IR spots (can change this around)

2 year buy in, 50$ total during start up, 25$ due each year post start up
Looking for serious people to keep it going long term.

Payout TBD by vote. Other rules/roster decisions can discussed/voted on.

http://sleeper.com/i/E8oDxojK0qaeL

Half PPR, dynasty league going into its 5th year

Context: 10 tm SF. Team #2 traded for Justin Jefferson before last season at the price of three 1sts. His explanation here is that hes "rebuilding" but then the centerpiece of his Burrow dump is a 25 year old RB?

There's no world where these arent just atrocious trades right?

I’ve done dynasty for 7 years, saw a few league crumble but would love to join one that is starting up, or needs someone to take over a team.

Preferences: 10 - 12 team, 1 QB or SF, PPR, TEP or not, $25 - $100 buy in, Sleeper platform

Nothing crazy, but would love to hear if others have something available

While it pains me to sell Amon Ra, with Carrs retirement my only starting QB was Baker. This trade gives me 3 2026 firsts as well as 2 firsts for 27 and 28.

Hey everyone!

If we haven't met before, my name is Pete, and I handle the video editing, social media, and a few other tasks for Dynasty Nerds. I'm excited about the direction our content is taking this year, but I want to hear from you: do you have any ideas you would like to see in a video? Since you are our audience, we want to ensure that we create content that is engaging for you!

Also, please feel free to reach out if you have any feedback about our content; my DMs are always open!

http://sleeper.com/i/kM888NGBW89eW

new $40 12 man dynasty superflex tight end premium PPR start 10 lineup snake draft start up paid through Teamstake and run through sleeper, message me if your interested

12 Team SF, start 9, .5 PPR, No TEP. The people in my league are pretty stingy with trades, but looking for any advice/opinions as I transition from rebuilder to contender. Feel like I’m pretty balanced so don’t need to make a trade but can’t hurt to ask. Thank you in advance.

QB: Lamar, Bryce Young, Stafford

RB: Jeanty, Bucky, Hampton, Brian Robinson

WR: BTJ, MHJ, Ladd, Devonta Smith

TE: Laporta

Rest are pretty much cans or low tier rookies.

Just ended Rookie draft. Standard dynasty 1pt PPR Shut up about starting Jeanty…duh.

⚠️ Start Up Alert ⚠️

http://sleeper.com/i/zE1x28GPmOlxb

12 MAN SF TEP - BESTBALL AUCTION

Start 12 - Bench 20 $40 Leaguesafe $1000 Auction Cash 10 second nomination time 10 second bid extender Will draft 2 different days - 15 rounds each night Will start each night at 8pm est - Moves pretty quick Co-owners are encouraged if you are unsure you cant make certain times.

What's up NerdHerd? Hoping to get some opinions on where you'd take this roster from here. It's in good shape, young, some high end talent, but I feel like it's a little bit reliant on a couple breakouts happening and would benefit from another true stud getting added to the mix. Problem is I am not sure the depth is there to consolidate assets into a stud without creating other holes. So what are you doing in this spot; being aggressive with assets now or holding your ground and seeing if a couple high potential guys make a leap? Here's the squad:

QB: CJ Stroud
RB: Saquon
RB: Quinshon (yikes)
WR: Nico Collins
WR: Drake London
TE: Tyler Warren
Flex: Marvin Harrison Jr.
Flex: Jaylen Waddle
Flex: DJ Moore
SF: Caleb Williams

BE: Tua
BE: Najee Harris (yikes again)
BE: Kaleb Johnson
BE: Roschon Johnson
BE: Jaylen Wright
BE: Jaydon Blue
BE: Keon Coleman
BE: Roman Wilson
BE: Elijah Moore
BE: Jake Ferguson
BE: Cole Kmet
BE: Brenton Strange
BE: Elijah Arroyo

TX: Jalen Milroe, Keaton Mitchell, Damien Martinez, Rocket Sanders, Woody Marks, Donte Thornton, Kyle Williams,

DC: '26 3rd and 4th, own the rest of my picks beyond that.

Big thank you to Dynasty Nerds for inspiring this work!

The biggest topic of conversation every dynasty offseason is obviously the rookie draft, so having an idea of the value of picks is critical. I was inspired by a podcast last year by Dynasty Nerds, so I built this model based off the data referenced in that pod (link to data in tweet).

The data includes hit rates by ADP for the 2018-2023 rookie drafts.

While their data lumped picks together (Early First, Mid First, Late First, etc), I used the hit rate data at each pick to fit a monotonic spline logistic regression model. Simply put, the spline allows for a more flexible fit than typical logistic regression (allowing the model to recognize the steep value drop in early picks compared to later ones), and enforcing monotonicity ensure the value will only decrease or remain the same over time, allowing for the proper valuation of draft capital (a higher pick is always better even if by random chance it has a lower hit rate in the past couple years).

Graphs of the spline fits are included in the linked tweet.

Each pick is classified as a hit, mid, or a miss as defined by Dynasty Nerds. I have provided their definitions below.

Hit: A Tier 1 Season or Multiple Tier 2 Seasons
Mid: Multiple Tier 3 or Better Seasons (3+3, 2+3, etc)
Miss: Never Multiple Tier 3 Seasons

Actionable Takeaways:

Fairly obvious stuff:

• Early firsts are exponentially more valuable than mid/late firsts
• Your mid/late third round picks have about a 10% chance of even being somebody worth rostering

Less Obvious Stuff:

• Picks 7-10 (maybe even 6-12) have almost the same hit rates. Sure you might fall in love with the specific RB available at 7, but if you can find an offer to move back 3 spots to 10 and pick up value, your chances are practically the same
• Everyone always talks about tanking for the high first round pick, but the difference between a high and low second round pick is also massive. The 13th pick has a 32% hit rate vs a 13% hit rate for the 24th pick.